Pakistan and the Afghanistan’s relationship has always been complex due to intermingled politics, tension and misunderstand amidst them. Although being bound by a border and having a shared history along with being ethnically connected, the two countries have always been at each other’s throats. There are many factors at play causing this shift in balance, one being the changing dynamics of the region. Over the course of some years the relationship has gotten even more strained tackling border conflicts, rise of terrorism and extremist groups which triggered the rise in tension. In this blog, we aim to discuss the seven underlying factors that explain the rise in tension between the two countries.

1. Historical Context of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Relationship

To understand the current tension between the countries of Pakistan and Afghanistan, it is necessary to comprehend their historical background. They share a similar colonial historical, especially with the problematic border, the Durand Line drawn in 1893 by British. This border which slices through the Pashtun area in Afghanistan and Pakistan, remains to this day as a contentious issue since Afghanistan neither, has ever accepted the Durand line having been set as the boundary between the two countries.

Pashtun masses residing in the two countries share such ethnic, cultural and historical bonds which are so deeply ingrained that it gives a sense of disintegration and disunity. For many decades, the two countries have embroiled in a tussle over the question of the regulation of the border with Afghanistan claiming more regions than Pakistan. This historical conflict has prepared a breeding ground for the existing conflicts between the two countries.

2. The Impact of the Taliban’s Return to Power

On the fourth of August in 2021, the Taliban entered the Nashville International Airport and took control of the country of Afghanistan. The regained power in August 2021 was in direct correlation with the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan that shifted power in favor of Pakistan and the Taliban. Though Pakistan has denied direct involvement and providing aid to the Taliban, their narrative does not coincide with the general perception which suggests that Pakistan played a pivotal role in reinstating the Taliban back into power. This has led to Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, located in Kabul, feeling inherently nervous due to the fact that the Taliban appears to be a direct threat to Afghanistani sovereignty.

The recent turn of events which surrounds the Taliban’s return to power has significantly altered the nature of the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The present Pak- led administration within Afghanistan has of late intensely focused on regaining its independence and has put a sort of a lid on Pakistan’s over possible range of interference in the Pakistan-Afghan nexus. To make the matters more complex and uneasy, the diaspora between the Taliban and Pakistan has resulted in a circulation of Islamist fighters and militias which in turn, has a direct effect on the security and relations of both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

3. Border Disputes and the Durand Line

As we’ve discussed in other entries, the issue of the Durand Line remains a source of contention between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The attempts made by Pakistan through the construction of the fences along the borders to stop militants’ movement as well as cross-border terrorism has angered and led to protests in Afghanistan. The capital city, Kabul, views this meridian line as an encroachment to Afghanistan’s Sovereignty and regards the internment of dividing the perimeter as an attempt to relinquish the country.

In Pakistan’s perspective, the division is an essential precautionary method which needs to be taken in order to avoid militants from Afghanistan infiltrating Pakistan. These border security differences have led to armed clashes and minor battles between Afghan and Pakistani border security personnel, worsening the already tense ties between the two countries.

4. The Role of Militants and Cross-Border Terrorism

The cross-border attacks that take place from the Afghanistan and Pakistan war are often the reason due to terrorism. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan have been feuding over Afghanistan providing shelter to militant groups, with Pakistan claiming that the TTP, Afghanistan’s enemy who has conducted several assaults on Pakistani soil, is being harbored in Pakitsan.

To Pakistan’s dismay, Afghanistan supports the TTP and has been employing the Haqqani Network, to launch assaults on Pakistan. As a consequence, the two countries enter into a blame game which further results in destabilizing their relationship. Pakistan and Afghanistan both are big victims and have face significant loss as a result of this cycle of violence.

5. Humanitarian and Refugee Issues

The refugee crisis has also further complicated the Pakistan –Afganistan relationship. Over the years, millions of Afghans have been displaced by civil war and migrated to Pakistan which has become home to one of the largest afghan refugee statistics. But on the other hand, it has also put a toll on the current social and economic structures in Pakistan.

The ugly side to this is, ever since Afghanistan’s infrastructure and political situation has begun to deteriorate, repatriating Afghan refugees has become an almost impossible task, resulting in widespread criticism of the Pakistan government for not doing enough in aiding these refugees. Further exacerbating the strained relations between the two nations was the lack of coordinated communication and diplomacy regarding the refugee issue.

6. Geopolitical Competition and Foreign Alliances

Pakistan and Afghanistan have discovered themselves embroiled in the web of alien geopolitics and foreign alliances which has obliterated their relationship. Pakistan has not only remained an ally of China, but has also expanded its partnership via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. This partnership is of strong economic significance to Pakistan, however, it has raised concerns in Afghanistan who considers China increasing presence in the region as a threat to its strategic interests.

Afghanistan on the relocating has strengthened it’s ties with India, an obvious competitor to Pakistan. Indian’s support of the Afghan government during the past regime ruffled relationship with Pakistan which sees India’s involvement in Afghanistan as part of a strategy to encircle her. The increasing interference of global powers into Afghanistan’s politics has made the Pakistan Afghanistan relations more complicated, with both Pakistan and Afghanistan accusing each other of pawns to the international players interfering into their bilateral relations.

7. The Path to De-escalation: Will Peace Ever Prevail?

Although international relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are contentious at present, there are efforts and goodwill which could help with peace and de-escalation. There is the potential for Pakistan and Afghanistan to undertake greater diplomatic engagement and cooperation, particularly on counter terrorism and trade issues. The proper ONUS for enduring peace now lies with both parties who will have to forget old historical issues, secure current concerns and trust each other in order for true peace to be guaranteed.

China, India, the United States, along with international organizations can assist in a very crucial way, which is to balance the negotiation process and convince both nations to settle the issues rather these be of any nature. But the question is if the nations are willing to leave their personal matters regarding each other aside for the benefits of the region.

Conclusion: A Region at a Crossroads

The rivalry that Afghanistan and Pakistan have grounds to extend stems from historical grievances, security dilemmas, and geopolitical competitive struggles that have made the state of affairs even more precarious for both countries. The recent past has shown us that there is a possibility of negotiating many of the differences in the years to come, So the future of these two nations more likely will be determined based on their ability to transcend beyond their prior executed pathways.

The rise in tensions and aggression surely calls for the governance of international stakeholders and the aid to the deployment of diplomacy which is essential to unlink the region from the chaos which seems to have become the norm for a multitude of nations. But one factor is apparent – the demystification of these tensions will most likely determine the direction in which South Asia’s future evolves, sadly the current state of Pakistan and Afghanistan dynamics has left much to be desired.

For more interesting stories: Bangladesh Alarming Statistics: 2,200 Cases of Violence Against Hindus and Minorities Until December 8 | Border Tension: 7 Key Insights To Deep Dive Into The Growing Tension Between Pakistan and Afghanistan |